We acknowledge the tragic implications of the defeat of the Baathist state and the victory of Western Imperialism in Syria. The long-running civil war to overthrow the Arab nationalist government in Syria has ended in victory for Salafist Islamic jihadis and their Western, Turkish, and Israeli sponsors. As a secular, anti-Zionist state, Syria found unlikely allies in Hizbollah and Shia Iran. This stance put it in the imperialist crosshairs; it is why the Salafi Islamists and Kurds received such ardent support from the West and Israel. We stand, as anti-imperialists, against US and Israeli interference.

The civil war had domestic and international aspects and cannot be understood without both sets of characteristics. The sin of the Syrian Arab Republic was not, as Western politicians argue, that it was authoritarian or anti-democratic; it was that it attempted to develop outside the confines of imperialism. As a secular, anti-Zionist state, it found unlikely allies unlikely in Hizbollah and Shia Iran. This stance put it in the crosshairs for regime change; it is why the Salafi Islamists and Kurds received such ardent support from the West and Israel.

The Assad government was comprised of the Arab nationalists of the Baath Party. In addition to the hostility of Israel and Western imperialism, domestically it faced a population that had not been proletarianised by centuries of capitalist production and which, therefore, retained distinct ethnic and religious identities which could be and were weaponised by both internal and external forces.

Whereas in Western Europe, capitalism eventually eroded or even dissolved ethno-sectarian or tribal identities, in other parts of the world, they remain of prime social importance. Given the antiquity of Syria and geographical position, the population comprised a myriad of different religions, which often took on the attributes of an ethnic identity. These created openings for foreign powers to intervene, to develop a patron-client relationship that eventually coalesced into a proxy force.

The Assad family, hailing from the minority Alawite sect, was unable to transcend this restriction and thus, irrespective of mistakes, faced a population in which there was at least the potential for being swung over to Sunni irredentism. The Muslim Brotherhood and the Baathists engaged in an on-off internal armed conflict that erupted into a large-scale civil war following the protests in 2011.

Despite reforms, opponents of the Assad government were determined to revolt. The role of the US, Israel, and Turkey in backing various Islamist and Kurdish groups against the Assad government should not be underestimated. Hundreds of millions went into funding men to fight for Salafi Islam, many more were imported from Central Asia while intelligence and weapons were sent in, culminating in the government forces being pushed to the brink of defeat by 2015.

They, in turn, began to receive substantial support from Hizbollah, Iran, and critically, Russian air support, which was sufficient to turn the tide and push back the Islamist forces until a ceasefire was reached in 2019. This ostensibly froze the conflict until it was reactivated on the foot of the contemporary weakening of Hizbollah by Israel and the evident unwillingness of Iran to push back.

In the meantime, the American and Kurdish occupation of Syria’s principal agricultural and oil-producing areas has rendered the Syrian state incapable of sustaining its infrastructure and, ultimately, its armed forces. In the face of the latest advance of the Islamists, the Syrian Arab Army did not fight, ultimately conceding the entirety of government-held areas and forcing the exile of Assad.

The end of the Assad government, the crushing of Gaza and Hamas, and the significant weakening of Hizbollah constitute a definite victory for the US and Israel. The power of Turkey has been significantly increased. In geopolitical terms, the US and Israel have secured the Middle East for a generation and have a freer hand to press forward, aiming for regime change in Teheran and more pressure against Russia.

Although the secular Arab nationalists have been defeated, the fate of Syria is by no means settled. Many internal frictions remain and external forces retain a preponderance of influence on the armed groups which they are unlikely to give up easily. Further, the underlying tendency of capitalism to take hold of every society will not stop simply because fanatical jihadis with a propensity to video themselves decapitating their opponents have taken power. But for now, the ethno-sectarian divisions in Syria and the Middle East more generally constitute the major social divisions that fracture society. The class struggle is not absent but sublimated through these legacy identities, which cannot be arbitrarily waved away.